I was recently asked about my thoughts on Meta’s Orion AR glasses, especially if such glasses have a chance to become as big as (or instead of) future smartphones.
I was asked my opinion recently Lifewire The issue with Meta’s Orion AR glasses is the future they may or may not point to. Only a fraction of all my answers were used, and in a way that supports the article’s skepticism (rightfully so) about the future of AR glasses. However, given my position and the fact that I think AR glasses are the inevitable future of the smartphone—becoming a cornerstone of our daily digital lives—I think it’s best to share my full response to the story.
Q: Everyone who has mobile phones is a problem in the market, because they are supported, and replace the mobile phones, which everyone had. Do you think many people will actually buy AR glasses?
Ben: I believe, like the world’s biggest technology companies (Meta, Apple, Google, etc.) that AR glasses are an inevitable evolution of the smartphone over time. The ‘easy sell’ (if all the other pieces can be made) is to imagine if you can do everything you can on your phone today, except for the magic screen that floats in front of you and can grow to any size you want. missing at any time. So when you’re walking down the street it might be a small window that shows you a message, but when you get home it might be a 100 video screen on your wall.
If you can build a device that can do this (and there’s reason to believe we can’t), then you’ve not only changed your phone… also replace your TV. Think about all the other screens in your life beyond your phone and TV: your desktop monitor, your computer monitor, your smart watch… You can’t fit a 65″ 4K TV in your pocket…
If you have had the opportunity to use Apple Vision Pro, you can clearly see that this idea is not just a dream. The video quality produced by Vision Pro is top notch. For most people, the Vision Pro TV screen is superior to any TV they’ll ever own (not to mention that it works better than any 3DTV or 3D video out there because using one display for each eye produces a much better 3D image than your regular glasses. 3DTV or video).
It’s true, but the Vision Pro is still great! The challenge for the tech industry is figuring out how to put the look, feel, and quality of Vision Pro into the same Orion glasses. It’s a big technical challenges that require multiple breakthroughs.
Again then long time vision – at least 10 years. Orion represents a real step towards this, but it is still very small compared to what you get from a big head like Vision Pro. Orion itself is no good enough to replace the smartphone, but future directions are clear.
So for those reasons, yes, I think people will buy AR glasses, but only until they offer a better value than their phones. And it will take ten years at least.
Q: You can’t text, the battery isn’t as good as a larger phone, and you have to wear glasses. I am [AR glasses] death? Why?
Ben: Writing in XR isn’t completely broken, but there’s no reason to think it won’t be. This would be akin to thinking that an app keyboard on a mobile phone wouldn’t be as good as a physical keyboard like a Blackberry…
There are many research methods to make writing easier on these types of tools; I recommend checking out the EMG input device that Meta has been working on.
There’s no reason to think that battery life can’t match that of a phone. Meta is already working to solve this problem with Orion which uses a wireless ‘compute puck’ (with a large battery and processor) that unloads heavy glasses into a larger device. This means that the glasses can be very low, while using more computers to computer the puck before pouring them to be displayed on the glasses. Because this compute puck doesn’t need to come out of your pocket all the time like a cell phone (and doesn’t need a screen, cameras, etc.), it can have a larger battery than a typical smartphone.
Q: Why are Zuckerberg and Meta looking for something to replace Android and iOS phones?
Ben: Meta has been beholden to Google and Apple because those companies control the platforms Meta relies on to reach its audience. The meta must follow their rules.
Meta’s entire journey into immersive technology, which began in 2014 with the acquisition of VR startup Oculus, was driven by Zuckerberg’s desire to beat Google and Apple to the “next platform” to not have the thumb. I covered this in an article earlier this year that summarizes Zuckerberg’s decade-long efforts to surpass Apple & Google in deep technology.
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